ESRC Research Seminar Series,
Seminar 3

Complexity: a Framework for Policy and Decision Support:
Research, Adaptation and Learning in Social Systems

09:30-17:00, 10th June 2009,
Cranfield Management Research Institute,
Cranfield University, UK.

The purpose of the seminar is to review how complexity and complex systems thinking and modelling can provide a framework for policy and investment decisions. The OMEGA project concerning aviation and environment policy will be used as an example.

"Reality is complex. We inhabit a world of evolving, interconnected systems, structures and organizations which both affect and form us and are shaped and changed by us. In order to respond to threats and opportunities of this situation we must seek a basis upon which to build better policies and decisions. This requires us first to break a problem into its constituent elements, and to consider the underlying structures, mechanisms and technological possibilities that characterize them. It allows us to consider possible interventions and policies that may be applied to the different components of the whole problem separately, and then most importantly it forces us to return to the overall problem, and consider the collective, integrated behaviour of the whole system. Usually it is simply assumed that improving subsystems will automatically improve the whole system. However, a complex systems models tells us to consider the interactions between the components and the possible technological changes, policies and actions that might be taken, providing real information about the trade-offs involved in particular policy and investment choices. This provides a balanced and transparent way to examine problem, making it more difficult for lobbying and hidden interests to shape them. The basis for this societal collaboration must be models that attempt to bring together expert opinion and knowledge within different disciplines and technical specialities, and synthesize them into some holistic, collective outcomes that can genuinely help policy and decision makers. The establishment and provision of such tools has been my aim since around 1975." Peter M Allen

Seminar and speakers details: [PDF format]

Registration form: [PDF format] [MS Word format]

Provisional Programme

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