Organisations, Innovation and Complexity: New Perspectives on the Knowledge Economy

University of Manchester
9-10th September 2004

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Complex Dynamic Processes in the Evolution of Early Information and Communication Technologies

Elizabeth Garnsey, Paul Heffernan & Simon Ford

ewg11@cam.ac.uk

Centre for Technology Management,
University of Cambridge, UK

Abstract

The creation of novelty and its subsequent selection or elimination by evolutionary mechanisms is a central theme in complexity studies. By examining the evolution of three information and communication technologies, this paper seeks to explain the linkages between the dynamic processes of variety generation, selection and propagation. History shows that inventions and technological advances funded by public expenditure have created openings for new entrants, who have assumed the role of agents of change. In these high-tech industries, new technologies are subject to network externalities, with the processes of selection and propagation fundamentally linked. Positive feedback mechanisms in producer and consumer ecosystems reinforce future selection, with a dominant design emerging once a critical mass of users has been achieved. These mechanisms include the need for interoperability, user learning effects and the development of complementary technologies. It is found that subsequent innovation of dominant designs is incremental and that future variety generation derives from the development of complementary technologies.

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